This page details predicted space weather conditions based on current solar wind data.

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Boyle Index (Asymptotic Polar Cap Potential)

The Boyle Index (BI)

[ Boyle et. al., J. Geophys. Res., 102, 111, 1997 ]

where v is the solar wind velocity in km/sec and B is the magnitude of the IMF, is a good predictor of the Polar Cap Potential drop for times when the solar wind is steady and the index is 160 kV or less. For the rare events where the Boyle index exceeds 160 kV, the polar cap potential generally saturates, only exceeding 200 kV in rare occasions, thus in those cases the Boyle Index is an overestimate of the Polar Cap Potential. A Boyle index of 200 averaged over three hours will often yield a Kp index of 6 or higher; for 250 or more, the Kp index is often 7 or higher.

Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Indices (Kp, Dst and AE Proxies)

Predicted indices shown below are derived solely based on the solar wind data using models developed through Artificial Neural Networks using the Boyle Index as a base function.  Kp=0 means a very quiet period while Kp=9 means extremely severe activity. The graphs appear "fuzzy" because each time is a superposition of forecasts.  Each 15 minutes, the one-hour forecast is generated, to cover that 15 minutes and the succeeding 45 minutes. So the 1-hour prediction is always at least 45 minutes, and sometimes over 3 hours, ahead of the latest realtime Kp estimate from NOAA. We make each 15-minute prediction somewhat transparent so that you can observe the intrinsic variability in the forecasts.  In a similar way, the 3-hour forecasts are shown overlapping. Every 15 minutes we make a new 3-hour-average forecast that covers the previous 30 minutes and the upcoming 2.5 hours.  Thus the 3-hour averages are always more smooth than the one-hour average predictions but extend farther into the future.

Auroral Forecast: OVATION Prime Real-time

For real-time plots of auroral power created by NOAA go to: OVATION Aurora

Data Source

These data are derived from measurements taken by the ACE spacecraft, a component of the International Solar Terrestrial Program (ISTP) and NOAA/SWPC for the planetary K index. For realtime solar wind plots created by NOAA/SWPC go to: ACE solar wind plots.

Click on the link KpDstAE for a draft of the paper published in AGU Space Weather.

Current Forecast Data

Archived Forecast Data

Graphs of other solar wind parameters over the last 24 hours can be viewed at the NOAA site.

Realtime Dst, AE Estimates:

Other links of interest: