SPACE WEATHER : FORECAST
This page details predicted space weather conditions based on current solar wind data.
Boyle Index (Asymptotic Polar Cap Potential)
The Boyle Index (BI)
where v is the solar wind velocity in km/sec and B is the magnitude of the IMF, is a good predictor of the Polar Cap Potential drop for times when the solar wind is steady and the index is 160 kV or less. For the rare events where the Boyle index exceeds 160 kV, the polar cap potential generally saturates, only exceeding 200 kV in rare occasions, thus in those cases the Boyle Index is an overestimate of the Polar Cap Potential. A Boyle index of 200 averaged over three hours will often yield a Kp index of 6 or higher; for 250 or more, the Kp index is often 7 or higher.
Predicted Geomagnetic Activity Indices (Kp, Dst and AE Proxies)
Predicted indices shown below are derived solely based on the solar wind data using models developed through Artificial Neural Networks using the Boyle Index as a base function. The vertical green lines indicate the most recent value. Kp=0 means a very quiet period while Kp=9 means extremely severe activity.
Auroral Forecast: OVATION Prime Real-time
For real-time plots of auroral power created by NOAA go to: OVATION Aurora
These data are derived from measurements taken by the ACE spacecraft, a component of the International Solar Terrestrial Program (ISTP) and NOAA/SWPC for the planetary K index. For realtime solar wind plots created by NOAA/SWPC go to: ACE solar wind plots.
Click on the link KpDstAE for a draft of the paper published in AGU Space Weather.
- 5 days estimated Boyle Index and Pressure
- 72 hours 1-hour predictions
- 72 hours 3-hour predictions
- Recent 72 hours AE 1 hour predictions
- Rice Enlil Kp Dst Predictions
Graphs of other solar wind parameters over the last 24 hours can be viewed at the NOAA site.
Other links of interest:
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